Predictions for 2026

Predictions for 2026

Everyone loves a good prediction, think about it for a sec.  Any time a news headline or someone predicts something, we are glued to their analysis.  Whether it be weather, my terrible Eagles, or the stock market, we as a society love a good prediction.  As a matter of fact, I predict many of you are reading this blog on the simple fact that the title says 2026 prediction.  The interesting thing, though, is the very things we like to predict about seemingly don’t give a rat’s behind about what the predictions are and who does the predicting (this might set a record for the most usage of the word predict in a blog ever predict predict predict).

Case in point, I went back and looked at what the top analysts predicted the stock market would perform in 2025.  The general consensus was somewhere in the 5-8% range.  Don’t ask me where they received that.  Heck, Vanguard forecasted (didn’t use predict) a 3.5%-5.5% rate of return over the next decade, when in reality,y 2025 alone did half of what they forecasted for the entire 10-year span.  Crazy right?!

My point in bringing all this up is multifaceted:

1. Predictions are generally terrible (not only because my Eagles got embarrassed).
2. They serve one great purpose, and that is to get readers’ eyeballs.
3. There are too many biases for most of us to actually forecast accurately and be clear-headed enough to be truly valuable. 
4. Most people who predict have an ulterior motive.  For instance, what good would it do for me to predict a 20% slide in the markets?
5. Generally speaking, there are way too many variables for anyone to fathom, analyze, understand, and predict to have any real value.
6. We put too much credit in what so-called “experts” think and not the real-world practicality or impact.

Summarized, we are drawn to these experts’ very biased, inaccurate, irrelevant prognostications (I’m trying, folks). 

So why do we put so much faith and weight into what random people, whom none of us have met, think?  I’m not quite sure, but I’m guessing it is our way of searching for some form of validation on what we are doing or a leg up on others.  Heck, read how peachy and wonderful the future is on Fox News, then quickly turn to CNN, and you’re thinking we are talking about two different countries (inverse was true 2 years ago fwiw).

 

End result?  Markets, economy, your portfolios didn’t really care what these fortune tellers (getting desperate here, ladies and gents) had to say.  They performed as they were intended, and that is a pill we all have to swallow.

My Predictions

I know what you are thinking the chutzpah of this guy to write an entire blog on how worthless predictions are to bait us all into his inane conjecture.  Yup, I am terrible. 

Here is what I envisage (someone found Oxford’s synonyms online) for the current year.  I foresee plenty of market volatility.  I expect some months where we are hitting new highs and feel really good, and others that seem hopelessly scary.  There will be international uncertainty and a few crazy events no one saw coming (I for sure didn’t have us bombing Venezuela and absconding with their dictator president on my dance card).

There will be a midterm election that will have seats change hands, and some will stay the same.  There will be war and peace, tariffs and treaties, and talk of overheated markets and still tons of room to grow.  Artificial intelligence will continue to dominate headlines, as will headlines about biotech. 

Now What?

I realize this was an entirely long lead-in to my point of this entire blog.  Point being, what do you do with my obvious predictions and the professional’s absurd predictions?  Simply put, take them with a grain of salt and move on.  Things that really matter shouldn’t be left to some ridiculous 3rd party guessing.  Instead, build plans that drown out the noise and don’t seem to care.  If it is your portfolio, recognize that they will go up and down this year, regardless of what some expert has to say on the matter.  Build a financial plan that will perform over the long term, as ups and downs, along with twists and turns, continually happen.  And most importantly, do not, and I repeat, do not let these so-called experts influence your well-thought-out plans, unless it is someone at Diversified, of course.

In the end, this should speak to creating a plan, implementing a plan, and adjusting based on known data, such as you are retiring or you got a big raise.  Do this, and in my experience, you will be leagues ahead of those who are at the mercy of what someone they’ve never met, and is likely very biased, has to say.

As always, we are here to help, and please stay wealthy, healthy, and happy.