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Major Equity Indexes End Mixed Amid Another Headline-Driven Week
Equity markets finished the week lower after an early rally faded, as investors focused on shifting geopolitical developments, oil price volatility, and continued pressure on U.S. large-cap technology stocks. Global equities, as measured by the MSCI ACWI, declined 1.49% for the week, while domestic large-cap stocks, measured by the S&P 500, fell more than 2%. The MSCI EAFE, which tracks developed international markets, and U.S. small caps, as measured by the Russell 2000, were the relative bright spots, finishing slightly higher at 0.05% and 0.47%, respectively.
Growth Slows, Inflation Rises
Preliminary data from S&P Global indicated that U.S. business activity growth moderated in March, with the Flash Composite PMI falling to 51.4, an 11-month low, as weaker services activity offset modest strength in manufacturing. The report also pointed to a notable pickup in inflationary pressures, with input costs rising at the fastest pace in 10 months and firms passing through higher prices at the quickest rate since 2022, driven in part by elevated energy costs and supply disruptions tied to Middle East conflict.
Labor Market Update
The Labor Department reported that initial jobless claims for the week ended March 21 rose modestly to 210,000, up from 205,000 the prior week and in line with expectations, while continuing claims declined by 32,000 to 1.819 million, the lowest level since May 2024, signaling continued resilience in the labor market.
Consumer Sentiment Index
The University of Michigan reported that its March Consumer Sentiment Index declined to 53.3 from 56.6 in February, as short-term economic expectations and outlooks for personal finances weakened, while longer-term expectations remained more stable, and inflation expectations for the year ahead rose to 3.8%, the largest monthly increase since April 2025.
Looking Ahead
A closely watched labor market report due Friday will provide insight into whether February’s weaker employment trends carried into March, after the economy lost 92,000 jobs in February, marking the third monthly decline in five months, with the release scheduled for a day when U.S. financial markets are closed in observance of Good Friday.
As Always
I’d like to leave you with the final line we’ve used since we started these commentaries back at the very height of market volatility in March 2020. Always remember that we create financial/investment plans not for the easy times, but to prepare for the tough ones.
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