Did you miss July’s Market High?
I consider myself one part teacher and one part student when it comes to the financial industry. I’m always trying to both learn and observe. I try to learn not only about finances and markets but also about people’s behaviors and feelings. You see these things are so intertwined it is critical to learn and observe how they work together.
Furthermore, the art of teaching or educating is also something I am constantly trying to not only do but also perfect. How can you take people, and not just have them hear what you are saying, but also listen and absorb what you are trying to relay? It is a hard thing, especially for this Jersey guy, as I am far from the most eloquent speaker.
One of the things I find important in teaching is repetition. Constantly looking at a similar topic from different angles. The other however is to point out examples in real-time. I actually think of a coaching analogy, as my CEO Michael Fisher is like the baseball dad coach of the century. I know when he coaches his kids it is both 10,000 hours practicing to get in repetitions, but also adjusting on the fly in real-time when he sees a correction needed to be made. This is all a long-winded way of saying I’m going to do both here today.
Did You Miss It?
Here is what I know. The first half of the year, we all have been reading, was the worst first half in 50 years. In other words, almost everyone reading this, who has been investing, has never had a worse first 6 months in their investing life. Ouch! Not to say it was the worst downturn you’ve experienced (2020 was much worse), but it was a constant pounding, down day after down day. Seemingly, no positive market news for 6 entire months is hard to stomach for many of you and trust me I get it.
To make matters worst, most of us were getting our 2nd quarterly statement in mid/late July, and Ay Caramba it was ugly. As a matter of fact, I have 2 calls today on the topic with “nervous” clients. Of course, my comment to them will be the same comment I’ve made to all of my clients this year and always during tough times. “Stay the course. Don’t sell. You can’t time the markets. This is what the markets do. If you want the positives of the markets you have to deal with the negatives. Downturns are temporary. If you get out, how do you know when to get back in? Follow your plan. We are prepared for this. Markets are forward-looking. It is only a loss if you sell.”
These are all comments I’ve made to any nervous clients during the most recent (and all) downturns. Now I get met with many different rebuttals if you will. Here are some of the rebuttals and concerns that are voiced to me. “I don’t have time for a rebound this time. I see no bright spot ahead. This time is different. Do you see who is in the White House? Inflation is insanely high. We are definitely headed towards a recession. I think we have much more to fall before we see the bottom. I’ve lost so much money already.” And the list goes on.
July’s Market High
You see, my point in saying all this is I’m sure many of you can relate to the above statements. Now here comes my big reveal. Are you ready for it? THE S&P 500 IN JULY HAD THE BEST MONTH SINCE NOVEMBER 2020. IT WAS UP 9.1% FOR THE MONTH. Let me ask, did any of you naysayers see that coming? I know, I know, dead cat’s bounce or this is simply temporary. The fact of the matter is I bet you missed it. As you were looking at your abysmal 2nd quarter reports the markets were quietly stagging an incredible month in the markets.
So, I ask did you miss it? How about I ask it differently? Did you predict it or see it coming? Well, if you read my mid-year predictions, I did actually call it (pointing out for prosperity and fame reasons, albeit luck). For those still rolling their eyes and not believing, you may be right. BUT, and a very big but, you also may be very very wrong. The point I’m trying to make is far from an I told you so, although I guess I kind of did. However, it is more to teach in the moment.
Heck, by the time you are reading this the markets may be down 9%, it is literally anyone’s guess. That said, I nor anyone at my company claims to be able to accurately predict the markets. We may have thoughts, and analyses, but never will you ever hear us claim we know what the future holds.
That said here is what I know with sheer certainty: how to coach and get people through these times. I know how to avoid mistakes that will cost you and your family the ability to achieve your goals. I know what simply works and doesn’t during these tumultuous times. I know how to simply get you through it, as do all of my colleagues here at Diversified.
The hard thing, albeit easy, is for you to trust and listen. Think of your kids for a second. How many times have you lived through the experience they are about to go through? You give them great advice to help them avoid a mistake or heartbreak. Then they go ahead and do something stupid like stay with their high school girlfriend when they go off to college (why didn’t you listen Andrew why)!
We are here for a reason, and hopefully you’ve chosen to work with myself or one of my esteemed colleagues, as we simply know how to get you there. We never promise it won’t be a bumpy ride, but we always promise we will be here 24/7 to guide you and be the ear to listen, and the voice of reason.
I leave you with this final thought….. Did you miss it?
Stay wealthy, healthy, and happy.
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