Equities Slip and Yields Rise Amid Stalled Inflation Progress
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Equities Slip and Yields Rise Amid Stalled Inflation Progress
Equity markets retreated slightly last week breaking a three-week win streak as inflation reports showed stalled progress again last month. Global equities (represented by the MSCI All Country World Index) were down -0.84% while domestic stocks (represented by the S&P 500 Index) were down -0.61%.
Consumer Price Index (CPI)
The week’s economic calendar was headlined by the Labor Department’s reading of the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Prices rose at an annual rate of 2.7%, in line with expectations but a tick above October’s 2.6% reading. Core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, remained steady at a year-over-year rate of 3.3% in November. Thursday’s report of the Producer Price Index (PPI) also showed a similar monthly trend with headline PPI rising slightly from October. While the moderating trend of inflation seemed to stall these past months and still sits above the Fed’s long-term target of 2%, headline CPI has come down substantially from its peak of 9.0% back in June 2022.
Labor Market
Weekly initial claims for unemployment jumped slightly to 242,000 from 225,000. Continuing claims also ticked up and remain near recent highs.
10-Year Treasury Rate
The inflation and labor market news pushed treasury yields higher, changing course from the past few weeks declines. The 10-year Treasury rate closed near 4.40% last week, up from 4.15% the previous week.
Looking Forward
This week the US Federal Reserve holds its final policy-setting meeting of the year. Markets widely expect another quarter percentage point rate cut to bring the Fed Funds target rate to 4.25% – 4.50%. This would mark the third consecutive rate cut following September’s 50 basis point and November’s 25 basis point cuts.
I’d like to leave you with the final line we’ve used since we started these commentaries back at the very height of market volatility in March 2020. Always remember that we create financial/investment plans not for the easy times, but to prepare for the tough ones.